Spring Hatch Trip Planning: Guessing Weather and Water

by Mark McGlothlin on January 7, 2018

in Weather

Once we get past the holiday season and roll smack into what for most of us chasing salmonids is the heart of the winter doldrums, there’s always a temptation to start thinking about chasing spring hatches in the Northern Rockies. Some of the finest fishing of the season happens pre-runoff and pre-tourista crowds, pending of course the snowpack and spring weather.

As flawed as the predications might be, inquiring minds often turn to NWS’s Climate Prediction center to see what the weather gurus think might be in store for the upcoming months.

Here’s the temperature and precipitation map pair for January | February | March 2018, published in late December, suggesting the Northern Rockies have good chances of laying a healthy snowpack (above normal precip chances and colder than normal temps), which is off to pretty nifty start so far.

T_JFM18
P_JFM18

The temperature and precipitation map pair for April | May | June 2018, again published based on late December data, shows precip and temps more in their normal/season ranges, which still offers decent to good odds of building the snowpack during those critical early Q2 months, yet offering seasonal temps that can make outings on the water very manageable.

T_AMJ18
P_AMJ18

Finally, La Nina persists and has strong probabilities to stay in place through May at least (from the 2 Jan 2018 weekly ENSO update); La Nina conditions favor laying in very healthy Northern Rockies snowpacks most of the time.

ENSO_Prob_2Jan18

Time to start planning your Montana spring mayfly tour. Hot damn.