The Odds of a La Nina Winter Keep Going Up

by Mark McGlothlin on November 12, 2017

in Inquiring Minds Want to Know, Weather

LaNinaGraphic

La Nina, that delightful phase of the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) that keeps the northern tier of the country wetter and colder during the winter months, appears to be setting up (or at least has become much more likely – below) according to the latest from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (read their current 6 Nov report here).

LaNinaProp12Nov

With fly fishers fortunes so intimately tied to water, most of us are keenly interested in rain and snow cycles, particularly when the high country snowpack is the lifeblood of next season’s river flows.

Forecasts obviously end up being best guesses, though the 3 months projections for temperature and precipitation as graphed below are usually pretty damned accurate. Our compadres up north better keep the damned snow shovels handy this year…

LaNina_3MPrecDJF

LaNina_3MTempDJF