During a 70 minute phone call this past weekend with Ed, a somewhat interesting exchange proceeded more or less as follows (in the midst of discussing a number of absolutely unrelated topics).
Pertinent context includes the fact that now and again Ed (background on Ed here) enjoys poking a bit of fun at us when we write what he calls ‘save the world’ posts. While an ardent conservationist, he has the opinion that there are so many people and organizations claiming the environmental sky is falling the public as well as political leaders have numbed to many critical issues.
He’s of the rather simple-minded opinion that people need to get off their butts, make hands-on contributions of time, effort and cash to organizations that are actually doing something instead of “whining their assess off”.
Ed: So did you see the Daily Mail article this weekend about the Met predicting another global cooling cycle? My AGW (anthropogenic global warming) buddies shit themselves when this one came out.
Me: Nope (thinking oh hell, not another AGW tirade again). What’s this one about?
Ed: Well..(pause)…they’re arguing that new data says there’s been no meaningful warming since 1997 and that sun activity is headed to a low cycle that damned well might lead to global cooling. I’m glad I’ll probably be dead before the really bad winter cycles get here.
Me: So have you fallen off the AGW wagon again?
Ed: Dammit, you know damn well I was never fully on the wagon. I’ve just finally realized that I fell victim to confirmation bias about AGW and I sure as hell haven’t been the only one. It finally clicked when I read The Drunkard’s Walk last fall.
Me: Confirmation bias? What the hell are you talking about?
Ed: You know, Sir Francis Bacon…wait a minute…(sounds of Ed shuffling around, a phone drop, pages flipping)…page 189 in The Drunkard’s Walk…you have the book, right?
Me: Yep. It’s in the bathroom in my reading stack. So what the hell is your point, Ed?
Ed: Two things. The Daily Mail isn’t any refereed scientific journal though the sources they quote clearly show that the scientific community doesn’t agree on even what the major influences driving temperature changes are; is it the sun, CO2 or water temperature cycles?
Here’s the real kicker, it really doesn’t matter right now. Whether you think the world is headed for a fiery hell-in-a-handbasket burn or that we’ll all be living in igloos in Montana 20 years from now, there are real threats to water happening right now. And mark my words, clean water will be the most critical commodity on the planet in a few years, not oil.
The bastards will be sucking the West dry to water bluegrass lawns on the Colorado front range or frack to hell and back if we’re not careful.
Maybe fly fishers will end up saving the world as we know it.
Me: Well said, my friend. So what do you think is coming down the pike? Cooling or warming?
Ed: Hell bells, I don’t know. I think I’d live longer if we enter a cool cycle…by the time the next ice age finally gets here I’ll be long gone. If that happens, just stick me out in the barn and freeze me like Ted Williams….
For an old geezer, Ed is surprisingly well read. The book he referenced, The Drunkard’s Walk, has nothing at all to do with fly fishing, though offers a fascinating glimpse into the highly misunderstood (and misused) world of chance, probability and statistics. Depending on your degree of cabin fever this year, it’s probably a worthy read.
Sure enough, on page 189, is a discussion of confirmation bias, described in 1620 by Francis Bacon:
“the human understanding, once it has adopted an opinion, collects any instances that confirm it, and though the contrary instances may be more numerous and more weighty, it either does not notice them or else rejects them, in order that this opinion will remain unshaken.”
Amazing how well that paragraph, recorded 392 years ago, describes the cognitive processes of so many today.
As to fly fishermen saving the world, Ed may just be on to something. Preserving and protecting clean water, something that most fly fishers hold near and dear, might just end up having additional benefits beyond keeping native cutts (insert your river denizen of choice here) healthy and prosperous.
