Chatting with folks back home we’ve heard more than one comment about the (relative) lack of snow so far this year.

The past couple of winters have brought heavy, lingering snowpacks that changed the fly fishing dynamic throughout much of the northern Rockies and with another La Nina in place this winter, the forecast has been for more of the same.

A friend from Bozeman has been banging around in the hills after mountain lion this past week and told Jake there’s been very little low and mid-level snow around for weeks now. Southwest Montana ski resorts are partially open with skimpy bases (Bridger is reporting 25” of settled base this morning with an opening temp of 34 – impressive).

We hadn’t taken a look at any of the more detailed weather / climate predications in a while, so I did of bit of digging today.

First question – is La Nina still in place? From the NWS’s Climate Prediction Center, yep, it is, though this season’s La Nina ain’t as robust as last year’s. From their 8 December 11 (the most current) update:

A majority of the models predict a weak or moderate strength La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 6) and then gradually weaken after peaking during the December – January period.  The models are roughly split between those that predict La Niña to remain weak (3-month average in the Niño-3.4 region between -0.5 and -0.9oC) and those that predict a stronger episode. Over the last half-century, La Niña events that were preceded by ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer (May-August) were less likely to attain strong amplitude (stronger than –1.5oC) the following winter. This observation, in combination with the model forecasts, favors a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, likely weakening with the onset of northern spring.

As to current snowpack / snowcover, here’s the snapshot for today….

Here’s the precipitation and temperature forecast for January / February / March…..

And the precipitation and temperature forecast for March / April / May…..

There’s still a lot of snowpack build yet to come…..

Tags: Weather

So I’m checking the weather back home this morning and lo and behold there’s snow in the forecast.

Ok, so it’s only in a tiny little pocket up near Glacier, only above 6500 feet, only 1 to 3 inches possible and it will be gone in a heartbeat.

There’s something about that first hint of snow in the forecast that makes one think fall really is coming and lots of good stuff is right around the corner.  Big browns, bowhunting and birds to name a few.  A friend’s even tagged his first antelope bowhunting.

There’s still lots of fishing to be done and given a choice I’d probably be on the Missouri the next few days.  Craig’s forecast looks nifty….

Hell, the weather’s even forecast to cool here in hell / Austin / central Texas.

(As of yesterday we’ve had a record 75 days above 100 in Austin bestowing the quite dubious honor of breaking the all time record for summer heat.  The Fat Guys may love that kind of weather over in Tucson, but generally we think it sucks.  We picked a hell of weather year to spend down here in exile.)

Had to run a couple of errands on Saturday and started my truck and found this reading on the temperature gauge.  Thankfully it cooled down to 115 after driving around a bit.  Frickin’ inhuman.  I’ll take snow in late August and long, cold winters any day.

Tags: Weather

I took this a couple of weeks back. Some of that snow is flowing down the Madison now.

Tags: River - Madison

It snowed in Austin (above) and San Antonio (Jake’s place below).

You’d think the world has come to an end.  Schools closed, businesses closed, death and destruction on the roadways.  We had to rush out for pics this morning before it all melted.

Tags: Weather

Jess was wandering last night….

Tags: Pic of the Day

For most of the neighborhood the weather is making much more news that fishing today.  Even though we’re only half way through the first week of October, there’s a winter storm warning (pink on the map) out for territory above 500o feet (that’s down to the edge of Bozeman if you’re wondering).

Just for interest sake they’re talking 2-4 feet of snow in the high country with accumulations of 4-6 inches in the valleys of southwest Montana.  The valley snow will surely melt out, but that much snow in the high country will stick around until late next spring or early next summer.

The fishing has been in fact better of late on the Big Hole, though you do need to think twice about floating a hard boat over there.  A neighbor who is not the most talented oarsman (typically due to his intake of adult beverages) holed a glass drifter over here this past week.

His story suggests that tectonic plates shifted causing a large boulder to suddenly rear up in his path, so close that it couldn’t be avoided.  Other reports suggest that he had spun around and was digging around in the cooler and then tying a fly on for his wife (what the hell?) when the fatal impact occurred.  The age of his boat (measured in lustrums) probably had something to do with it as well.  My point – don’t float with this guy, and use the raft this next week.

Streamer fishing has been getting better with the bursts of transitional weather, and should be much better with this storm and the next due roughly from Wednesday through the weekend.  Looks like the later week storm won’t quite carry the punch today’s / tomorrow’s storm will.   Divide’s forecast looks a might wintery….

BWOs have been out on the upper river in decent numbers and should be rolling this week as well.  Stay warm.

Tags: River - Big Hole

The Madison in the Park has enjoyed one of the better Septembers in recent memory in terms of fun and productive fishing – there have been good numbers of runners (rainbows and browns) and active fishing despite the bright sunshine dominating the weather for almost the entire month.

Speaking of weather – it has changed with a vengeance today.   Driving to an early morning meeting at 0640 this morning here in Bozeman it was raining and 38 with a stiff northwest wind blowing.  For the first time this season Bozeman and much of the greater Yellowstone area (including the entire Park) have been issued their first Winter Weather Advisory (purple on the map)…..

And the forecast for West Yellowstone looks snowy and a bit chilly, particularly when you compare it to the very warm temps that have graced the area for most of the month – hells bells, it was 85 in Bozeman yesterday afternoon.

As you’d expect this time of year streamers and soft hackles have been the name of the game on the Madison, and will be even more so given the advent of some genuine fall / transitional weather.  We and many others have been awaiting the arrival of fall weather to push the fall hatches – you can bet the Madison BWOs will be out this afternoon.

A final thought on the Park section of the Madison – October will be a very good fishing month without a doubt.  If you haven’t fished this section of the Madison during a good year you should get here sometime in the next few weeks.

Note well you won’t be alone or even close to it; there have been a large number of fisherfolk plying these hallowed waters this fall with more no doubt on the way given the weather change.  Maybe I’m getting to be a more cantankerous, spoiled,  selfish son of a bitch, but I just don’t like fly fishing in a crowd.  The trophy waters are a great experience to fish, but there are miles and miles of smaller, lesser-known and much less crowded waters to fish ‘just around the corner’ from the Madison.  Yellowstoner has been singing this song for several weeks now.

These days it will be hard to go wrong with almost any of the neighborhood waters.  We’ll drive by and snap your pic on the Madison (it is a magically photogenic river) and will probably fish it very late or very early on the way to or from some other places.

And dress warmly the next few days – I’m sitting in my office here in Bozeman and figured the rain had already stopped this morning as I could no longer hear the soft patter on the roof.

It did stop raining – it’s snowing.

Wahoo.

Tags: River - YNP - Madison

Taken yesterday around Bozeman.

Tags: Pic of the Day

Picked up the one who must be obeyed from work late yesterday afternoon and caught what I hope will be the last valley snow storm of the season blowing in from the west and crossing the Bridgers……

Tags: Pic of the Day

Damn these big April storms.  I’m gonna have to get a snowblower with some power. 

I got just right at two feet of snow at my cabin this past week with drifts easily pushing four feet.  People were stuck everywhere, and it’s going to be muddy and crappy when it melts around here – the tribs will go off for sure. 

I drifted the dam to Craig yesterday afternoon; it was cold (30s) with a brisk north wind.  Several decent fish on streamers deep and nymphing out of my boat.  Saw some olives but no consistently rising fish. 

That should change with 50 due today and 55 tomorrow; be ready for olives and I’d work subsurface stuff pretty hard.  Yep, we’re still fishing pink over here. 

The upcoming weather looks much better for fly fishing with clouds, showers and milder temps due.  Not a super exciting report this week – have to call ‘em like I see ‘em. 

Come on spring.

Tags: River - Missouri

Mother nature’s going to throw a curveball over the next few days, just after most of us in the neighborhood were getting used to this balmy weather.  Gallatin Field near Bozeman hit 80 on Tuesday and yesterday– that’s ‘blow out my favorite river warm’. 

The curveball pitch is a cool and moist weather system moving into the area today; cool and wet enough to get a winter weather warning planted on some of the mountain country between here and Yellowstone and snow back in the forecast even for Bozeman. 

Cool enough to slow the water roaring down out of the hills and dirtying the rivers?  Maybe, though it probably depends on how much falls as rain and where it falls.  Right now it doesn’t look cold enough to reverse the early run off in progress in the southwestern part of the state. 

Cool, overcast, and showers – sounds like BWO and streamer weather to me if you can find fishable water.  Time to renew your friendship with the tailwaters around – Lower Madison, the upper Upper Madison, Missouri, and Big Horn, and time to keep a sharp eye on flows on your favorite waters.

Tags: Weather