Why Are Flows 38% of Normal on the Madison This Morning?
That’s a great question.
We’ve now fully converted to the belief that managing recreational usage isn’t the most critical issue the Madison River system is facing today – the cornerstone issue for the Madison is flow management.
And flow manager PP&L has done a particularly lousy job planning and managing flows this year.
Don’t take my word for it. Here’s recent wisdom on the subject from a couple of guys who have been watching Madison flows day in and day out for many a day; they’ve both been writing about Madison River flow mismanagement FOR YEARS.
From the Madison River Fishing Company Report 21 June –
…Speaking of low water…I’m not going to go too far into it, I’ve been there done that in this fishing report many, many times. If you’re paying any attention at all to the flows you’ve no doubt noticed that the upper river here in just about as low as it ever gets. In mid-June. Yep, we should be running about three times this flow rate right now.
Why? you might ask. The short version is that once again PP&L would rather base their flow regime on forecasts rather than a cursory glance out the window at some “real-time” data. We had one of the driest early springs on record here in southwest, MT. We were off 70%+ for moisture for the months of January, February, March and April. Yes, the snow-pack hovered around 95% but the water content was only 40-50% of the long term average. It effectively didn’t snow or rain for months here. The only reason the snow-pack numbers looked okay was that it was cold and what snow there was stuck around.
Yet PP&L didn’t react to any of this with lowered flows until late April when they dropped it slightly. Then in mid-May they started getting a little serious (nervous?). Then by early June it went to “oh shit” status. Why didn’t they react until it was obviously too late? Because their FORECASTS were STILL telling them it would rain and snow enough that water wouldn’t be a problem!! No, sadly, I am not kidding. Raise your hand if you trust the weather forecasts here for next week (crickets chirping). Now tell me if you would trust the forecast for 6 months in advance….Yet THIS is how PP&L runs the flows on arguably THE most important tourism and recreational resource in the state.
Yes, they have pat answers for all this. Yes, they are operating within the parameters of their FERC license. YES, they could do it better. Here’s an idea….do away with the maximum flow rate requirement (3500 cfs going over Quake) for the months of Feb, March, April, May and June. This will hedge against too much water all at once. Do away also with the 10% per day maximum flow increase for those same months again to hedge against too much water too quickly coming into the reservoir. Then react to REAL-TIME conditions out there in the field…you know…the places where the snow actually sits on the ground. The places where it either snows or it doesn’t, where there is actual water content in the snow and not just 2 feet or 10 feet sitting there.
Set a decent flow rate in September….say for arguments sake 700 cfs out of Hebgen. Leave it there until April if need be. If it doesn’t actually snow or rain or if the water content in the snow is 40% of average then drop the flow in Feb (or whenever appropriate). If it starts snowing really wet snow…raise it. Sure, some folks will bitch if the flow jumps 30% in mid-May….welcome to a more natural way of doing things where runoff isn’t controlled by a dam. Talk to the folks on the Big Hole about rising flows. How many people would rather have flows jumping around a bit in early spring than a reservoir one and a half feet low to start the season?
Doesn’t sound all that complicated now does it? For the time being we will have to deal with whatever is thrown at us this summer. PP&L had better be praying for rain and cool weather all summer. And no, the dam isn’t fixed yet. And yes, water temps have been warmer at the Kirby flow gauge than at Varney.
Okay, so I lied about not getting too far into it. I’m done now. It basically amounts to banging my head against a brick wall anyway.
And from Joe Moore at the Big Sky Anglers yesterday –
…As of late, the Madison dropped down to historic lows at Hebgen Dam, Kirby gauge and Varney Bridge. For the last 36 hours, things got really skinny below Hebgen Dam. It’s back up slightly because by law, they have to keep the flows at the Kirby gauge above 600 cfs. PPL didn’t manage the flows very well over the winter, running the river at 1100 cfs during Dec, Jan and Feb (this was higher than the thirty year average for winter flows). Then, in March, April and over half of May we hardly received any moisture. Back in January and February, while guiding snow coach tours in YNP, we knew the snow pack was lighter than normal. It’s hard to gauge the water content without looking online at the NRCS SNOTEL Sites web site and I check this regularly throughout the winter….so do others.
Our snow pack was just okay, but the moisture content was quite a bit lower than normal for the Madison Range. They should have seen this coming. Hebgen is supposed to be full by June 21 each year and we are still about 18 inches below full pond. So, what the river gets for stream flows is the bare minimum. This is hard to take lightly. More on this later…..or can you check it out for yourself in an interesting read from the boys in Ennis……they just might be on to something.
It’s way past time to have this issue addressed. What’s it going to take to get something done?
